MODEL VERDICT
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $8.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $7.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $7.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $7.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $6.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $8.04 | -3.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $4.80 | -42.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $14.16 | +69.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $29.03 | +247.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $4.79 | -42.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.10 | +21.0% | 100% | 66 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 61.68 | 41.96 | 34.13 | 170.79 | 53.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 44.51 | 44.26 | 31.48 | 62.44 | 10.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.95 | 25.13 | 16.88 | 32.77 | 6.38 |
| P/FCF | 57.31 | 59.88 | 24.39 | 81.57 | 21.89 |
| P/FFO | 22.04 | 20.74 | 10.53 | 40.52 | 10.13 |
| P/TBV | 11.51 | 8.36 | 3.65 | 30.64 | 10.03 |
| P/AFFO | 207.17 | 228.04 | 113.71 | 279.76 | 84.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.53 | 2.63 | 1.01 | 4.19 | 1.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.21 | 1.23 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates GO's fair value at $10.10 vs the current price of $8.35, implying +21.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.61 (P10) to $11.68 (P90), with a median of $9.07.
GO's current P/E of -3.6x compares to the industry median of 18.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -119.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 61.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover GO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.08 (range: $8.00 — $16.00), implying +44.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.