MODEL VERDICT
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $311.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $314.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $305.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $318.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $328.57 | Below threshold | -1.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $131.39 | -57.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $147.07 | -52.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $168.97 | -45.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $66.45 | -78.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $87.41 | -72.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $51.78 | -83.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $311.42 | -0.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $74.55 | -76.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $84.55 | -72.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $229.90 | -26.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $66.45 | -78.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $161.42 | -48.2% | 100% | 92 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $303 | $327 | $351 | $375 | $399 |
| Conservative (19%) | $323 | $348 | $374 | $400 | $426 |
| Base Case (29.8%) | $351 | $379 | $407 | $435 | $463 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $379 | $409 | $440 | $470 | $500 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.55 | 25.82 | 19.35 | 29.91 | 3.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.59 | 21.64 | 16.30 | 24.98 | 3.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.97 | 20.28 | 13.23 | 25.74 | 3.87 |
| P/FCF | 31.02 | 29.30 | 19.35 | 52.25 | 10.25 |
| P/FFO | 20.96 | 20.73 | 15.81 | 24.97 | 2.79 |
| P/TBV | 7.16 | 6.99 | 5.16 | 10.02 | 1.84 |
| P/AFFO | 38.63 | 37.46 | 27.67 | 61.88 | 11.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.45 | 6.27 | 4.53 | 9.22 | 1.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.59 | 6.60 | 4.10 | 9.50 | 1.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GOOGL's fair value at $161.42 vs the current price of $311.76, implying -48.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 92/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $161.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $121.78 (P10) to $193.88 (P90), with a median of $155.84.
GOOGL's current P/E of 28.8x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +84.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
81 analysts cover GOOGL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $357.19 (range: $270.00 — $415.00), implying +14.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (68), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 92/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 32.8% is 7.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (25.6%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$216. (2) Multiple compression: GOOGL trades at the 7890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.6×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GOOGL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3080.0% to approximately $216. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.