MODEL VERDICT
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $385.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $344.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $341.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $337.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $317.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $290.78 | -24.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $219.88 | -43.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $328.45 | -14.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $142.84 | -63.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $223.00 | -42.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $112.98 | -70.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $520.77 | +35.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $106.50 | -72.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $115.06 | -70.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $328.45 | -14.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $148.16 | -61.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $255.81 | -33.7% | 100% | 100 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $363 | $399 | $436 | $472 | $508 |
| Conservative (19%) | $387 | $426 | $465 | $503 | $542 |
| Base Case (29.8%) | $421 | $463 | $505 | $547 | $589 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $455 | $500 | $546 | $591 | $637 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.55 | 25.82 | 19.35 | 29.91 | 3.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.57 | 21.64 | 16.30 | 24.98 | 3.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.96 | 20.28 | 13.23 | 25.66 | 3.85 |
| P/FCF | 31.02 | 29.30 | 19.35 | 52.25 | 10.25 |
| P/FFO | 20.96 | 20.73 | 15.81 | 24.97 | 2.79 |
| P/TBV | 7.16 | 6.99 | 5.16 | 10.02 | 1.84 |
| P/AFFO | 38.63 | 37.46 | 27.67 | 61.88 | 11.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.45 | 6.27 | 4.53 | 9.22 | 1.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.59 | 6.60 | 4.10 | 9.50 | 1.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GOOGL's fair value at $255.81 vs the current price of $385.69, implying -33.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $255.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $204.72 (P10) to $258.63 (P90), with a median of $231.51.
GOOGL's current P/E of 35.7x compares to the industry median of 30.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +17.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
82 analysts cover GOOGL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $406.28 (range: $355.00 — $460.00), implying +5.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (69), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 37.9% is 12.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (25.6%), with a Z-score of +2.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$187. (2) Multiple compression: GOOGL trades at the 8100th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.6×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GOOGL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.6σ, meaning margins are 2.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5160.0% to approximately $187. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.