MODEL VERDICT
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $15.27 | +35.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $40.68 | +260.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $19.89 | +76.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $45.11 | +299.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $45.60 | +303.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $112.69 | +897.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $31.06 | +174.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $22.43 | +98.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $19.95 | +76.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $45.25 | +300.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $637.35 | +5540.3% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Conservative (5%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Base Case (-6.5%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
| Bull Case (-9%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.24 | 20.47 | 13.35 | 57.91 | 15.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.75 | 13.56 | 9.73 | 45.25 | 12.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.58 | 9.32 | 6.70 | 28.78 | 7.92 |
| P/FCF | 2400.14 | 18.35 | 4.63 | 16547.47 | 6238.65 |
| P/FFO | 16.70 | 10.21 | 6.88 | 40.61 | 12.09 |
| P/TBV | 9.64 | 7.70 | 3.60 | 21.27 | 6.59 |
| P/AFFO | 24.35 | 20.22 | 9.21 | 62.68 | 19.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.46 | 4.54 | 2.28 | 10.15 | 3.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.48 | 1.77 | 0.77 | 4.88 | 1.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates GOOS's fair value at $637.35 vs the current price of $11.30, implying +5540.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $637.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.17 (P10) to $2090.82 (P90), with a median of $503.03.
GOOS's current P/E of 15.8x compares to the industry median of 20.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -22.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
17 analysts cover GOOS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.33 (range: $10.00 — $34.00), implying +71.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (12), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GOOS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 209910.0% to approximately $249. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.