MODEL VERDICT
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $353.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $341.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $349.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $332.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $338.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $513.12 | +45.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $583.32 | +64.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $334.50 | -5.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $509.67 | +44.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $641.92 | +81.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $436.90 | +23.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $186.34 | -47.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $917.15 | +159.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $685.82 | +93.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $323.65 | -8.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $510.87 | +44.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $446.46 | +26.2% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $263 | $315 | $368 | $420 | $473 |
| Conservative (7%) | $269 | $323 | $377 | $431 | $485 |
| Base Case (10.2%) | $278 | $334 | $389 | $445 | $501 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $287 | $345 | $402 | $460 | $517 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.09 | 8.46 | 3.83 | 15.58 | 3.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.30 | 10.20 | 5.59 | 14.75 | 3.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.62 | 8.60 | 5.16 | 11.86 | 2.37 |
| P/FCF | 8.52 | 8.25 | 3.10 | 16.40 | 5.20 |
| P/FFO | 7.00 | 6.45 | 3.32 | 11.29 | 2.59 |
| P/TBV | 85.78 | 30.04 | 10.63 | 272.42 | 125.53 |
| P/AFFO | 15.14 | 9.01 | 4.08 | 33.34 | 11.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.63 | 1.61 | 1.25 | 1.90 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GPI's fair value at $446.46 vs the current price of $353.67, implying +26.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $446.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $377.89 (P10) to $584.91 (P90), with a median of $472.29.
GPI's current P/E of 14.0x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +5.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
24 analysts cover GPI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $476.67 (range: $460.00 — $500.00), implying +34.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GPI trades at the 3850th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GPI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11740.0% to approximately $769. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.