MODEL VERDICT
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $9.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $9.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $9.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $10.54 | +8.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $28.32 | +192.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $23.62 | +143.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $22.50 | +132.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $43.44 | +347.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $21.66 | +123.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $26.90 | +177.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $23.41 | +141.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.79 | +114.3% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $6 | $8 | $11 | $14 | $18 |
| Conservative (13%) | $7 | $8 | $12 | $15 | $18 |
| Base Case (19.8%) | $7 | $9 | $12 | $16 | $20 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $8 | $9 | $13 | $17 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.16 | 13.17 | 10.18 | 28.68 | 8.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.65 | 13.41 | 11.14 | 28.81 | 6.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.98 | 7.69 | 6.70 | 11.25 | 1.51 |
| P/FCF | 19.32 | 19.05 | 12.73 | 26.46 | 6.25 |
| P/FFO | 6.67 | 6.82 | 4.56 | 8.38 | 1.27 |
| P/TBV | 14.32 | 12.06 | 7.43 | 23.47 | 8.26 |
| P/AFFO | 164.99 | 14.16 | 7.77 | 690.55 | 296.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.34 | 3.20 | 0.64 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.52 | 0.94 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates GPK's fair value at $20.79 vs the current price of $9.70, implying +114.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.53 (P10) to $24.10 (P90), with a median of $20.74.
GPK's current P/E of 6.6x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -58.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
27 analysts cover GPK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.60 (range: $10.00 — $15.00), implying +29.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (11), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GPK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 38730.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.