MODEL VERDICT
Global Payments Inc. (GPN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $72.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $67.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $72.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $70.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $65.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $106.84 | +47.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $42.10 | -41.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $137.00 | +89.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $77.37 | +6.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $27.24 | -62.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $49.51 | -31.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $285.37 | +294.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $18.60 | -74.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $67.83 | -6.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $137.01 | +89.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $83.35 | +15.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $107.23 | +48.2% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $51 | $64 | $77 | $90 | $102 |
| Conservative (16%) | $54 | $68 | $81 | $95 | $108 |
| Base Case (24.5%) | $58 | $73 | $87 | $102 | $116 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $62 | $78 | $93 | $109 | $124 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 78.50 | 41.09 | 13.28 | 248.30 | 82.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.55 | 37.22 | 17.06 | 80.52 | 23.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.78 | 11.79 | 9.98 | 24.14 | 5.89 |
| P/FCF | 20.31 | 17.35 | 9.12 | 34.47 | 10.24 |
| P/FFO | 15.45 | 13.88 | 6.60 | 27.25 | 8.30 |
| P/AFFO | 19.85 | 16.77 | 8.46 | 34.07 | 10.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.40 | 1.30 | 0.78 | 2.36 | 0.48 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.64 | 3.44 | 2.41 | 8.72 | 2.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GPN's fair value at $107.23 vs the current price of $72.36, implying +48.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $107.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $85.80 (P10) to $175.93 (P90), with a median of $126.02.
GPN's current P/E of 12.4x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -47.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 78.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
62 analysts cover GPN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $88.44 (range: $76.00 — $109.00), implying +22.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (36), Hold (22), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 16.9% is 7.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (16.4%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$444. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GPN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 51290.0% to approximately $444. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.