MODEL VERDICT
Grifols, S.A. (GRFS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $14.91 | +81.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $17.55 | +113.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $18.06 | +119.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $12.37 | +50.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $14.72 | +78.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $6.48 | -21.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $23.35 | +183.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $30.47 | +270.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $18.02 | +119.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $11.57 | +40.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.62 | +101.9% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Conservative (5%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $10 |
| Base Case (-4.8%) | $4 | $5 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.32 | 27.42 | 16.40 | 128.44 | 38.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.50 | 19.14 | 12.03 | 29.38 | 6.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.30 | 14.40 | 8.69 | 17.98 | 3.50 |
| P/FCF | 30.76 | 15.23 | 8.47 | 98.69 | 38.35 |
| P/FFO | 12.30 | 13.45 | 7.78 | 16.66 | 3.63 |
| P/AFFO | 22.14 | 25.04 | 13.97 | 29.73 | 5.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 1.05 | 0.59 | 2.01 | 0.56 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.53 | 1.19 | 0.70 | 3.03 | 0.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates GRFS's fair value at $16.62 vs the current price of $8.23, implying +101.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.52 (P10) to $23.00 (P90), with a median of $17.97.
GRFS's current P/E of 12.3x compares to the industry median of 31.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -61.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover GRFS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (2), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GRFS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19210.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.