MODEL VERDICT
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $242.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $259.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $267.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $265.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $256.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $380.37 | +56.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $508.97 | +110.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $309.38 | +27.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $187.23 | -22.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $310.38 | +28.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $212.53 | -12.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $177.35 | -26.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $227.15 | -6.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $200.06 | -17.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $313.17 | +29.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $162.51 | -33.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $308.32 | +27.2% | 100% | 88 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $215 | $233 | $251 | $269 | $287 |
| Conservative (7%) | $220 | $239 | $257 | $276 | $294 |
| Base Case (10.7%) | $228 | $247 | $266 | $285 | $304 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $236 | $256 | $275 | $295 | $314 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.33 | 23.15 | 18.31 | 28.25 | 3.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.08 | 20.40 | 16.20 | 23.83 | 2.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.82 | 18.10 | 13.97 | 21.42 | 2.21 |
| P/FCF | 29.80 | 32.21 | 20.90 | 37.40 | 5.63 |
| P/FFO | 19.73 | 20.52 | 15.66 | 25.08 | 3.25 |
| P/TBV | 4.59 | 4.90 | 3.26 | 5.63 | 0.77 |
| P/AFFO | 23.66 | 24.65 | 19.38 | 28.55 | 3.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.03 | 4.16 | 2.87 | 5.08 | 0.70 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.12 | 5.28 | 3.67 | 6.34 | 0.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GRMN's fair value at $308.32 vs the current price of $242.42, implying +27.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $308.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $245.86 (P10) to $348.00 (P90), with a median of $295.85.
GRMN's current P/E of 28.2x compares to the industry median of 36.0x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -21.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
28 analysts cover GRMN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $269.00 (range: $238.00 — $320.00), implying +11.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (5), Hold (20), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GRMN trades at the 1250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GRMN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2180.0% to approximately $189. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.