Granite Ridge Resources, Inc (GRNT)
Valuation Overview•Is Granite Ridge Resources, Inc Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 42/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
GRNT struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-3.3% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 16.4% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $128.3M | +18.5% | -3.3% | +38.9% | — | |
| EBITDA | $81.3M | — | -9.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$47.0M | +29.8% | -54.7% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.36 | +28.6% | -55.0% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$11.5M | -72.4% | — | -19.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 23.6% | 31.9% | 42.2% | 31.4% |
| Operating Margin | 16.4% | 19.6% | 33.8% | 21.4% |
| Net Margin | -7.1% | 10.3% | 24.2% | 15.6% |
| FCF Margin | -23.9% | -20.1% | -10.2% | -18.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.09 | $0.02 | -77.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.10 | $0.01 | -90.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.14 | $0.09 | -35.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.13 | $0.11 | -15.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.20 | $0.22 | +10.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.14 | $0.17 | +21.4% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.14 | $0.14 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.14 | $0.13 | -7.1% |
Total return is -14.6% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -39.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +4.9% | -4.4% | — |
| 1Y | -14.6% | -39.6% | +7.3% |
| 3YCAGR | -3.7% | -23.1% | +19.6% |
| 5YCAGR | -8.3% | -20.7% | +16.6% |
| 10YCAGR | -4.4% | -18.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Granite Ridge Resources, Inc (GRNT) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Granite Ridge Resources, Inc appears Fair versus peers compared to industry peers.
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $4.39 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $11.00 (implying +134.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 42/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.6%.
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc pays a 9.4% dividend yield, covered by a 237% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +18.5% 1Y revenue growth and +28.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -3.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 3 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +134.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Granite Ridge Resources, Inc include: -36.8% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.04x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.