MODEL VERDICT
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc (GRNT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $5.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $5.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $10.01 | +66.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $13.93 | +131.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $2.50 | -58.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $24.11 | +301.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $4.17 | -30.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $24.66 | +310.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $2.46 | -59.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $23.98 | +299.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.01 | +83.2% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.73 | 11.96 | 4.58 | 46.14 | 16.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.07 | 10.12 | 4.15 | 23.87 | 8.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.94 | 5.02 | 2.82 | 29.91 | 10.49 |
| P/FFO | 10.70 | 5.36 | 3.26 | 23.82 | 9.95 |
| P/TBV | 2.59 | 1.57 | 1.01 | 7.48 | 2.47 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.59 | 1.57 | 1.01 | 7.48 | 2.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.30 | 2.42 | 2.03 | 15.32 | 5.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates GRNT's fair value at $11.01 vs the current price of $6.01, implying +83.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.47 (P10) to $16.93 (P90), with a median of $13.08.
GRNT's current P/E of 33.4x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +140.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.7x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
3 analysts cover GRNT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GRNT trades at the 7560th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GRNT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (21.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8100.0% to approximately $11. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.