MODEL VERDICT
Gravity Co., Ltd. (GRVY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $61.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $62.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $62.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $60.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $60.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $357286.70 | +577099.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $315975.74 | +510361.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $175834.77 | +283962.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $298907.81 | +482788.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $180578.74 | +291626.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $19065.89 | +30701.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $397054.40 | +641344.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $369553.54 | +596917.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $275623.65 | +445172.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $165190.73 | +266767.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $203324.22 | +328372.1% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $50184 | $70258 | $90332 | $110405 | $130479 |
| Conservative (5%) | $51660 | $72324 | $92988 | $113652 | $134317 |
| Base Case (1.7%) | $50037 | $70051 | $90066 | $110081 | $130095 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $50381 | $70533 | $90686 | $110838 | $130991 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/FCF | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/FFO | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.64 | 1.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.60 | 0.98 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates GRVY's fair value at $203324.22 vs the current price of $61.90, implying +328372.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $203324.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $191962.08 (P10) to $285365.62 (P90), with a median of $237818.74.
GRVY's current P/E of 9.3x compares to the industry median of 32.1x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -71.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for GRVY.
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GRVY trades at the 2500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GRVY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2580.0% to approximately $78. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.