MODEL VERDICT
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $859.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $922.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $905.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $948.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $938.98 | Below threshold | +0.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $1115.15 | +29.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $1333.60 | +55.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $1519.99 | +76.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $890.52 | +3.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $1127.80 | +31.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $863.36 | +0.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $908.15 | +5.7% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $728 | $813 | $899 | $985 | $1070 |
| Conservative (9%) | $752 | $840 | $929 | $1017 | $1106 |
| Base Case (14.0%) | $786 | $878 | $971 | $1063 | $1155 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $819 | $916 | $1012 | $1109 | $1205 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.01 | 10.93 | 6.43 | 16.87 | 3.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.68 | 28.86 | 13.42 | 44.23 | 9.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.98 | 25.04 | 12.49 | 30.46 | 6.51 |
| P/FCF | 29.77 | 15.19 | 5.24 | 83.45 | 36.94 |
| P/FFO | 8.36 | 8.49 | 5.53 | 11.46 | 2.14 |
| P/TBV | 1.16 | 1.13 | 0.76 | 1.66 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 18.66 | 13.10 | 7.17 | 49.99 | 14.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.09 | 1.05 | 0.72 | 1.57 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.61 | 1.60 | 1.23 | 2.09 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates GS's fair value at $908.15 vs the current price of $859.57, implying +5.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $908.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $746.65 (P10) to $1101.79 (P90), with a median of $913.57.
GS's current P/E of 21.2x compares to the industry median of 27.5x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -22.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.0x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
54 analysts cover GS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $933.67 (range: $604.00 — $1100.00), implying +8.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (29), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GS trades at the 3890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2330.0% to approximately $659. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.