MODEL VERDICT
Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $10.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $9.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $9.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $9.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $9.91 | -1.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $10.49 | +4.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $10.49 | +4.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $0.10 | -99.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $9.90 | -1.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $10.49 | +4.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.63 | -4.6% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $6 | $8 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
| Conservative (5%) | $6 | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
| Base Case (-20.6%) | $5 | $7 | $8 | $10 | $11 |
| Bull Case (-28%) | $4 | $6 | $7 | $9 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.88 | 10.14 | 5.87 | 25.41 | 8.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.75 | 31.14 | 9.25 | 56.55 | 19.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.25 | 42.82 | 14.79 | 56.55 | 18.22 |
| P/FCF | 7.74 | 8.29 | 3.29 | 13.03 | 3.34 |
| P/TBV | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.64 | 1.27 | 0.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.64 | 1.27 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.96 | 7.21 | 2.93 | 10.78 | 3.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates GSBD's fair value at $9.63 vs the current price of $10.09, implying -4.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.56 (P10) to $12.02 (P90), with a median of $10.24.
GSBD's current P/E of 9.8x compares to the industry median of 9.6x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +1.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
9 analysts cover GSBD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $9.00 — $9.00), implying -10.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (6), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GSBD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (53.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6280.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.