MODEL VERDICT
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $7.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $7.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $7.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $6.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $7.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $4.38 | -38.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $44.92 | +534.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $9.73 | +37.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $188.43 | +2561.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $181.11 | +2458.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.37 | +300.6% | 100% | 42 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.72 | 14.30 | 7.38 | 37.50 | 15.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.09 | 15.01 | 12.45 | 17.88 | 2.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.00 | 6.15 | 5.25 | 12.11 | 2.60 |
| P/FCF | 27.75 | 8.29 | 5.46 | 69.49 | 36.18 |
| P/FFO | 5.76 | 3.42 | 2.32 | 13.08 | 4.60 |
| P/TBV | 1.10 | 0.94 | 0.77 | 1.79 | 0.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.53 | 1.09 | 0.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates GT's fair value at $28.37 vs the current price of $7.08, implying +300.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 42/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.14 (P10) to $44.60 (P90), with a median of $34.94.
GT's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 18.9x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -106.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.7x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover GT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $8.15 (range: $7.30 — $9.00), implying +15.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (12), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 42/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (18), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.