MODEL VERDICT
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $9.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $8.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 2, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $8.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 27, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.07 | Pending | -4.7% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $8.64 | Pending | -13.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $17.75 | +92.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $9.96 | +8.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $9.20 | -0.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $17.79 | +93.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $9.16 | -0.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.28 | +33.2% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.52 | 9.57 | 2.63 | 72.30 | 32.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.90 | 7.11 | 2.85 | 11.75 | 3.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.71 | 2.96 | 1.66 | 10.45 | 3.05 |
| P/FCF | 15.03 | 4.02 | 1.91 | 45.56 | 18.73 |
| P/FFO | 1.36 | 1.34 | 0.90 | 1.84 | 0.41 |
| P/TBV | 0.65 | 0.56 | 0.48 | 0.93 | 0.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.64 | 0.56 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 0.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.25 | 0.85 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates GTE's fair value at $12.28 vs the current price of $9.22, implying +33.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.53 (P10) to $18.53 (P90), with a median of $12.30.
GTE's current P/E of -1.7x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -114.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.5x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover GTE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying +51.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GTE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.