MODEL VERDICT
W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $1148.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $1147.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $1162.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $1143.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $1172.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $1246.11 | +8.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $1100.23 | -4.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $1177.65 | +2.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $932.21 | -18.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $1293.33 | +12.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $1015.45 | -11.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $2848.64 | +148.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $705.16 | -38.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $733.77 | -36.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $1174.52 | +2.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $931.24 | -18.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1181.30 | +2.9% | 100% | 91 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $1002 | $1118 | $1234 | $1350 | $1465 |
| Conservative (15%) | $1054 | $1175 | $1297 | $1419 | $1540 |
| Base Case (22.3%) | $1126 | $1256 | $1385 | $1515 | $1645 |
| Bull Case (30%) | $1197 | $1336 | $1474 | $1612 | $1750 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.17 | 25.94 | 18.38 | 31.56 | 4.47 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.47 | 19.05 | 13.98 | 23.04 | 3.09 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.47 | 17.06 | 12.76 | 20.05 | 2.61 |
| P/FCF | 29.69 | 26.39 | 22.64 | 39.67 | 6.63 |
| P/FFO | 21.40 | 22.01 | 16.27 | 25.18 | 3.59 |
| P/TBV | 14.98 | 14.63 | 13.33 | 17.59 | 1.57 |
| P/AFFO | 28.17 | 27.77 | 19.06 | 37.96 | 6.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.45 | 11.70 | 9.02 | 13.95 | 1.62 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.24 | 2.08 | 1.62 | 3.01 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GWW's fair value at $1181.30 vs the current price of $1148.62, implying +2.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1181.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $967.45 (P10) to $1114.51 (P90), with a median of $1040.00.
GWW's current P/E of 32.4x compares to the industry median of 33.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -2.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
38 analysts cover GWW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $1157.43 (range: $1044.00 — $1300.00), implying +0.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (24), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GWW trades at the 5710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GWW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 680.0% to approximately $1227. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.