MODEL VERDICT
Haemonetics Corporation (HAE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $59.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $59.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $61.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $61.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $57.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $85.10 | +43.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $131.95 | +122.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $93.91 | +58.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $74.13 | +25.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $96.34 | +62.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $80.74 | +36.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $117.32 | +98.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $68.77 | +16.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $84.15 | +42.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $94.33 | +59.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $73.74 | +24.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $119.85 | +102.2% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $50 | $57 | $64 | $71 | $78 |
| Conservative (11%) | $52 | $59 | $66 | $74 | $81 |
| Base Case (17.5%) | $54 | $62 | $70 | $78 | $86 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $57 | $65 | $74 | $82 | $90 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 59.29 | 38.17 | 24.21 | 110.48 | 34.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.45 | 33.03 | 20.17 | 74.98 | 18.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.63 | 20.26 | 15.07 | 33.02 | 7.23 |
| P/FCF | 55.52 | 37.91 | 27.00 | 150.87 | 43.55 |
| P/FFO | 25.33 | 21.96 | 14.70 | 36.99 | 9.38 |
| P/TBV | 33.87 | 25.28 | 18.47 | 57.86 | 21.05 |
| P/AFFO | 60.30 | 48.85 | 17.14 | 133.76 | 47.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.17 | 5.38 | 3.72 | 10.48 | 2.58 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.22 | 3.76 | 2.99 | 6.29 | 1.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HAE's fair value at $119.85 vs the current price of $59.26, implying +102.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $119.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $95.45 (P10) to $134.16 (P90), with a median of $113.99.
HAE's current P/E of 17.9x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -36.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 59.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover HAE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $84.60 (range: $70.00 — $94.00), implying +42.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 13.3% is 5.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (8.3%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$122. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HAE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10660.0% to approximately $122. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.