MODEL VERDICT
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $14.23 | +1056.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 37 industry peers | $16.81 | +1266.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.76 | +530.7% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 48.90 | 38.91 | 21.14 | 86.65 | 33.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 63.65 | 41.74 | 16.20 | 179.36 | 66.05 |
| P/FCF | 30.00 | 34.48 | 6.66 | 46.23 | 15.07 |
| P/TBV | 13.61 | 12.81 | 10.27 | 17.75 | 3.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52 | 1.39 | 0.20 | 2.89 | 1.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.03 | 0.80 | 0.06 | 2.19 | 0.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates HAIN's fair value at $7.76 vs the current price of $1.23, implying +530.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.53 (P10) to $21.73 (P90), with a median of $15.48.
HAIN's current P/E of -0.2x compares to the industry median of 17.0x (31 peers in the group). This represents a -101.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
44 analysts cover HAIN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $1.67 (range: $1.50 — $2.00), implying +35.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (29), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HAIN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.