MODEL VERDICT
Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $15.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $15.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $15.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $14.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $16.15 | +7.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $18.92 | +25.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $16.07 | +6.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $23.19 | +54.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $19.88 | +32.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $26.28 | +74.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $11.11 | -26.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $8.84 | -41.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $16.04 | +6.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $23.32 | +55.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.09 | +20.2% | 100% | 86 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $12 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| Conservative (5%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Base Case (-6.1%) | $11 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 |
| Bull Case (-8%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.11 | 25.72 | 12.05 | 36.76 | 8.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.76 | 18.67 | 11.26 | 20.95 | 4.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.41 | 15.32 | 9.15 | 16.51 | 3.26 |
| P/FCF | 22.04 | 19.55 | 15.21 | 32.43 | 6.81 |
| P/FFO | 17.50 | 19.40 | 9.11 | 22.44 | 5.16 |
| P/AFFO | 20.71 | 22.36 | 10.41 | 29.21 | 6.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.49 | 2.29 | 1.77 | 3.84 | 0.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.94 | 3.06 | 1.64 | 3.75 | 0.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HAYW's fair value at $18.09 vs the current price of $15.05, implying +20.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.86 (P10) to $20.75 (P90), with a median of $18.78.
HAYW's current P/E of 22.1x compares to the industry median of 23.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -6.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.1x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
10 analysts cover HAYW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $15.75 (range: $11.00 — $19.00), implying +4.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HAYW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (19.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5410.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.