MODEL VERDICT
Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $6.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $6.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $6.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $6.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $6.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $11.88 | +83.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $14.02 | +116.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $10.39 | +60.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $2.97 | -54.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $4.39 | -32.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $6.08 | -6.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $11.15 | +72.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $10.39 | +60.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.23 | +73.7% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.10 | 9.05 | 8.24 | 76.00 | 38.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 73.06 | 21.79 | 8.78 | 395.90 | 142.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.00 | 13.41 | 8.12 | 49.76 | 14.56 |
| P/FCF | 9.20 | 9.39 | 3.02 | 13.03 | 3.74 |
| P/FFO | 30.71 | 17.91 | 6.80 | 90.44 | 34.81 |
| P/AFFO | 348.71 | 36.15 | 7.77 | 1642.26 | 723.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 16.77 | 5.59 | 3.73 | 84.28 | 29.81 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.72 | 0.82 | 0.43 | 0.87 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates HBI's fair value at $11.23 vs the current price of $6.47, implying +73.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.48 (P10) to $17.48 (P90), with a median of $12.41.
HBI's current P/E of -7.1x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -135.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.1x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
34 analysts cover HBI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.25 (range: $6.00 — $8.00), implying +12.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (16), Hold (15), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HBI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.