MODEL VERDICT
HBT Financial, Inc. (HBT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $27.10 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $28.40 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $28.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $28.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $28.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $30.99 | +14.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $22.54 | -16.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $23.43 | -13.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $30.21 | +11.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $30.94 | +14.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $30.43 | +12.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.66 | -1.6% | 100% | 91 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $18 | $23 | $28 | $33 | $38 |
| Conservative (8%) | $18 | $24 | $29 | $34 | $40 |
| Base Case (12.7%) | $19 | $25 | $30 | $36 | $41 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $20 | $26 | $31 | $37 | $43 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.45 | 9.69 | 5.70 | 11.31 | 1.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.11 | 7.10 | 2.49 | 9.61 | 2.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.78 | 6.70 | 2.35 | 9.14 | 2.57 |
| P/FCF | 9.85 | 10.69 | 4.39 | 14.15 | 3.25 |
| P/FFO | 8.82 | 9.35 | 5.37 | 10.14 | 1.60 |
| P/TBV | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.72 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 9.31 | 9.64 | 5.54 | 11.31 | 1.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.14 | 1.51 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.59 | 0.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.69 | 2.65 | 2.19 | 3.17 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates HBT's fair value at $26.66 vs the current price of $27.10, implying -1.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.15 (P10) to $30.00 (P90), with a median of $26.62.
HBT's current P/E of 11.1x compares to the industry median of 12.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -12.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
6 analysts cover HBT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.00 (range: $30.00 — $32.00), implying +14.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HBT trades at the 3060th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HBT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 520.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.