MODEL VERDICT
Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $21.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $20.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $21.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $19.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $19.31 | Below threshold | -1.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $16.47 | -24.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $11.02 | -49.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $15.74 | -27.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $32.52 | +49.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $11.16 | -48.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $43.10 | +98.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $37.95 | +74.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $26.30 | +20.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $16.66 | -23.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $33.18 | +52.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.47 | -6.0% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $19 | $21 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Conservative (5%) | $20 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $26 |
| Base Case (-9.3%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| Bull Case (-13%) | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.02 | 23.60 | 19.94 | 27.95 | 3.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.98 | 18.91 | 12.48 | 26.39 | 4.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.31 | 15.21 | 11.02 | 19.75 | 3.50 |
| P/FCF | 23.01 | 20.29 | 9.87 | 42.44 | 13.27 |
| P/FFO | 18.54 | 18.41 | 14.62 | 23.10 | 2.89 |
| P/TBV | 3.29 | 2.67 | 2.07 | 5.11 | 1.24 |
| P/AFFO | 20.19 | 19.94 | 16.29 | 24.46 | 2.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.72 | 2.27 | 1.69 | 4.37 | 1.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.46 | 1.19 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HCSG's fair value at $20.47 vs the current price of $21.77, implying -6.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.10 (P10) to $25.24 (P90), with a median of $22.09.
HCSG's current P/E of 26.9x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +38.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover HCSG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.33 (range: $22.00 — $25.00), implying +7.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HCSG trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HCSG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2750.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.