MODEL VERDICT
Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $21.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $22.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $19.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $19.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $19.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $11.68 | -45.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $12.83 | -39.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $14.40 | -32.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $20.64 | -3.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $12.13 | -43.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $24.75 | +16.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $40.36 | +89.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $36.00 | +69.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $13.80 | -35.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $16.33 | -23.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.68 | -7.6% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
| Conservative (5%) | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Base Case (-9.3%) | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Bull Case (-13%) | $16 | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.02 | 23.60 | 19.94 | 27.95 | 3.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.92 | 18.91 | 12.48 | 25.96 | 4.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.26 | 15.21 | 11.02 | 19.75 | 3.44 |
| P/FCF | 23.01 | 20.29 | 9.87 | 42.44 | 13.27 |
| P/FFO | 18.54 | 18.41 | 14.62 | 23.10 | 2.89 |
| P/TBV | 3.38 | 3.30 | 2.07 | 5.11 | 1.21 |
| P/AFFO | 20.19 | 19.94 | 16.29 | 24.46 | 2.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.79 | 2.74 | 1.69 | 4.37 | 1.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.46 | 1.19 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HCSG's fair value at $19.68 vs the current price of $21.30, implying -7.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.46 (P10) to $23.41 (P90), with a median of $19.31.
HCSG's current P/E of 26.3x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +47.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover HCSG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $24.50 (range: $23.00 — $27.00), implying +15.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HCSG trades at the 7270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HCSG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1090.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.