MODEL VERDICT
HEICO Corporation (HEI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $268.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $264.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $291.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $292.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $289.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $179.00 | -33.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $313.42 | +16.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $182.71 | -31.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $208.37 | -22.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $320.25 | +19.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $412.58 | +53.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $186.72 | -30.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $191.71 | -28.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $189.18 | -29.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $200.17 | -25.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $205.45 | -23.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $258.86 | -3.5% | 100% | 84 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 51× | 55× (Current) | 59× | 63× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $245 | $266 | $287 | $308 | $329 |
| Conservative (11%) | $255 | $277 | $298 | $320 | $342 |
| Base Case (16.4%) | $268 | $291 | $314 | $337 | $359 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $281 | $305 | $329 | $353 | $377 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 60.48 | 61.47 | 47.76 | 66.04 | 6.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 44.36 | 43.25 | 35.22 | 50.78 | 5.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.68 | 36.65 | 29.83 | 41.13 | 3.83 |
| P/FCF | 50.32 | 48.74 | 38.39 | 62.22 | 7.33 |
| P/FFO | 46.80 | 47.45 | 38.19 | 51.39 | 4.32 |
| P/TBV | 97.47 | 52.95 | 37.20 | 246.80 | 100.52 |
| P/AFFO | 50.83 | 51.48 | 41.09 | 55.99 | 5.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.37 | 8.15 | 7.13 | 10.40 | 1.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.32 | 9.60 | 7.63 | 10.66 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HEI's fair value at $258.86 vs the current price of $268.34, implying -3.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $258.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $266.43 (P10) to $311.33 (P90), with a median of $288.44.
HEI's current P/E of 54.8x compares to the industry median of 37.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +46.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 60.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
34 analysts cover HEI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $371.00 (range: $330.00 — $391.00), implying +38.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 15.4% is 1.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (21.8%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$420. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HEI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5650.0% to approximately $420. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.