MODEL VERDICT
Hess Midstream LP (HESM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $37.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $37.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $37.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $39.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $42.44 | +11.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $78.60 | +106.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $41.51 | +8.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $90.26 | +136.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $85.25 | +123.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $53.90 | +41.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $20.52 | -46.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $24.08 | -36.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $50.76 | +33.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $41.53 | +8.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $90.31 | +136.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.88 | +36.1% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $29 | $34 | $40 | $45 | $50 |
| Conservative (10%) | $30 | $36 | $41 | $47 | $52 |
| Base Case (15.3%) | $32 | $37 | $43 | $49 | $55 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $33 | $39 | $45 | $51 | $57 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.37 | 14.94 | 13.37 | 18.59 | 1.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.63 | 5.17 | 3.85 | 7.88 | 1.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.47 | 4.24 | 3.08 | 6.03 | 1.14 |
| P/FCF | 3.40 | 2.77 | 1.04 | 7.56 | 2.39 |
| P/FFO | 4.86 | 4.74 | 1.96 | 7.73 | 1.86 |
| P/TBV | 2.38 | 0.94 | 0.19 | 7.08 | 2.64 |
| P/AFFO | 27.05 | 23.88 | 14.55 | 45.88 | 13.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.38 | 0.94 | 0.19 | 7.08 | 2.64 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.17 | 1.30 | 0.32 | 2.21 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HESM's fair value at $51.88 vs the current price of $38.12, implying +36.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.26 (P10) to $52.48 (P90), with a median of $47.78.
HESM's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 16.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -8.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
9 analysts cover HESM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $32.00 (range: $32.00 — $32.00), implying -16.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HESM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (57.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17950.0% to approximately $107. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.