MODEL VERDICT
Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $12.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $12.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $11.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $10.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $9.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $6.49 | -47.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $9.93 | -19.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $16.05 | +30.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $23.31 | +89.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $12.09 | -1.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $24.93 | +102.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $19.59 | +59.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $21.66 | +76.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $16.17 | +31.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $24.36 | +97.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.99 | -2.6% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.13 | 19.58 | 2.28 | 85.75 | 30.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.57 | 23.35 | 4.60 | 71.57 | 24.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.32 | 19.15 | 4.60 | 95.78 | 31.46 |
| P/FCF | 11.57 | 13.25 | 7.35 | 15.34 | 3.56 |
| P/FFO | 17.33 | 16.06 | 4.20 | 42.56 | 12.65 |
| P/TBV | 1.85 | 1.47 | 1.16 | 3.34 | 0.87 |
| P/AFFO | 14.20 | 15.80 | 4.40 | 24.86 | 8.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.75 | 1.34 | 1.06 | 3.21 | 0.83 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.19 | 1.12 | 0.68 | 1.81 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HIMX's fair value at $11.99 vs the current price of $12.31, implying -2.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.28 (P10) to $17.42 (P90), with a median of $13.67.
HIMX's current P/E of 26.8x compares to the industry median of 34.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -23.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.1x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
20 analysts cover HIMX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.00 (range: $8.00 — $8.00), implying -35.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (6), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HIMX trades at the 1490th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HIMX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4870.0% to approximately $18. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.