MODEL VERDICT
AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $1.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $1.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $1.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $1.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $1.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $0.20 | -88.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $3.93 | +119.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $0.19 | -89.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $0.96 | -46.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $1.23 | -31.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $0.14 | -92.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.53 | -14.6% | 100% | 65 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 |
| Conservative (5%) | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 |
| Base Case (-23.2%) | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
| Bull Case (-31%) | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.39 | 6.73 | 1.13 | 18.95 | 7.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.40 | 8.09 | 1.28 | 16.14 | 6.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.71 | 16.72 | 0.90 | 44.50 | 19.85 |
| P/FCF | 33.05 | 35.47 | 1.70 | 59.56 | 26.55 |
| P/FFO | 7.81 | 6.23 | 1.09 | 17.69 | 7.11 |
| P/TBV | 2.10 | 1.02 | 0.19 | 6.16 | 2.76 |
| P/AFFO | 7.81 | 6.24 | 1.09 | 17.69 | 7.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.94 | 1.01 | 0.19 | 1.53 | 0.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.08 | 7.74 | 1.45 | 23.40 | 9.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates HKD's fair value at $1.53 vs the current price of $1.79, implying -14.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.76 (P10) to $1.97 (P90), with a median of $1.30.
HKD's current P/E of 7.8x compares to the industry median of 17.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -54.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.4x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for HKD.
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 179.1% is 97.7 percentage points above the 4-year average (81.4%), with a Z-score of +6.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$1. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HKD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +6.6σ, meaning margins are 6.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (81.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5080.0% to approximately $1. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.