MODEL VERDICT
Hecla Mining Company (HL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $18.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $18.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $19.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $19.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $19.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $10.21 | -43.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $12.31 | -31.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $9.18 | -49.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $8.05 | -55.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $10.19 | -43.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $7.57 | -58.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $11.92 | -34.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $12.38 | -31.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $9.16 | -49.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $8.05 | -55.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.49 | -8.7% | 100% | 74 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $22 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 68.99 | 81.06 | 39.16 | 86.75 | 25.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 50.05 | 48.70 | 23.71 | 79.09 | 26.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.45 | 17.21 | 11.79 | 29.16 | 6.85 |
| P/FCF | 227.91 | 39.31 | 25.43 | 807.57 | 386.50 |
| P/FFO | 22.49 | 23.48 | 13.11 | 36.67 | 8.69 |
| P/TBV | 2.00 | 1.57 | 0.98 | 4.86 | 1.29 |
| P/AFFO | 76.83 | 57.25 | 28.67 | 164.13 | 59.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.00 | 1.57 | 0.98 | 4.86 | 1.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.49 | 4.04 | 2.47 | 8.84 | 2.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HL's fair value at $16.49 vs the current price of $18.05, implying -8.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.27 (P10) to $37.49 (P90), with a median of $20.55.
HL's current P/E of 36.8x compares to the industry median of 18.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +96.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 69.0x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover HL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $23.83 (range: $13.00 — $36.50), implying +32.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (14), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 22.6% is 29.4 percentage points above the 3-year average (6.8%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$10. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (6.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4390.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.