MODEL VERDICT
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $7.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $8.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $8.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $8.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $8.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $13.48 | +71.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $17.12 | +117.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $5.69 | -27.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $4.26 | -45.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $7.65 | -2.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $0.53 | -93.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $8.41 | +7.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $11.80 | +50.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $5.69 | -27.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $4.26 | -45.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.02 | +27.5% | 100% | 75 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 53.00 | 39.08 | 21.51 | 129.19 | 39.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.76 | 13.72 | 9.78 | 18.63 | 2.92 |
| P/FCF | 25.44 | 20.13 | 10.41 | 49.24 | 14.65 |
| P/FFO | 13.11 | 13.18 | 9.20 | 17.57 | 3.36 |
| P/AFFO | 31.53 | 34.98 | 15.52 | 46.94 | 13.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.60 | 1.48 | 1.18 | 2.58 | 0.51 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.04 | 1.06 | 0.69 | 1.32 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates HLMN's fair value at $10.02 vs the current price of $7.86, implying +27.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.73 (P10) to $11.40 (P90), with a median of $9.96.
HLMN's current P/E of 39.3x compares to the industry median of 28.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +38.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover HLMN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying +78.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 2.3% is 3.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (3.9%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$13. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HLMN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6950.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.