MODEL VERDICT
Hamilton Lane Incorporated (HLNE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $92.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $94.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $106.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $105.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $92.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $176.17 | +90.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $43.75 | -52.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $68.93 | -25.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $147.35 | +59.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $197.71 | +113.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $96.98 | +4.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $131.68 | +42.3% | 100% | 90 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $76 | $88 | $99 | $111 | $123 |
| Conservative (13%) | $80 | $92 | $104 | $116 | $129 |
| Base Case (20.4%) | $85 | $98 | $111 | $124 | $137 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $90 | $103 | $117 | $131 | $145 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.60 | 36.88 | 16.05 | 43.19 | 9.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.77 | 17.31 | 11.08 | 27.80 | 6.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.87 | 20.62 | 13.71 | 32.05 | 5.73 |
| P/FCF | 28.05 | 20.59 | 13.63 | 72.69 | 20.09 |
| P/FFO | 37.83 | 34.62 | 22.63 | 53.54 | 11.60 |
| P/TBV | 8.38 | 8.53 | 4.79 | 12.06 | 2.63 |
| P/AFFO | 41.83 | 41.89 | 23.98 | 57.84 | 12.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.25 | 8.53 | 4.65 | 11.81 | 2.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.74 | 9.32 | 5.74 | 14.41 | 2.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates HLNE's fair value at $131.68 vs the current price of $92.56, implying +42.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $131.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $119.24 (P10) to $158.79 (P90), with a median of $137.84.
HLNE's current P/E of 17.1x compares to the industry median of 32.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -47.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover HLNE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $171.50 (range: $141.00 — $230.00), implying +85.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HLNE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (32.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10580.0% to approximately $191. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.