MODEL VERDICT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $318.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $335.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $341.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $328.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $323.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $224.18 | -29.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $117.20 | -63.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $179.63 | -43.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $210.68 | -33.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $194.70 | -38.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $342.95 | +7.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $121.65 | -61.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $137.92 | -56.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $179.63 | -43.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $210.68 | -33.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $332.97 | +4.5% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 44× | 48× | 52× (Current) | 56× | 60× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $280 | $306 | $331 | $356 | $382 |
| Conservative (7%) | $287 | $313 | $339 | $365 | $391 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $296 | $323 | $350 | $377 | $404 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $306 | $333 | $361 | $389 | $417 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 50.09 | 41.20 | 27.89 | 106.84 | 28.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.23 | 28.59 | 20.23 | 54.53 | 12.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.48 | 26.38 | 19.27 | 43.56 | 8.84 |
| P/FCF | 236.66 | 33.70 | 22.17 | 1461.11 | 540.00 |
| P/FFO | 39.96 | 36.86 | 24.70 | 73.30 | 17.64 |
| P/AFFO | 45.11 | 41.76 | 26.62 | 84.46 | 20.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.43 | 5.47 | 3.40 | 7.57 | 1.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HLT's fair value at $332.97 vs the current price of $318.61, implying +4.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $332.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $196.10 (P10) to $772.91 (P90), with a median of $347.81.
HLT's current P/E of 52.1x compares to the industry median of 29.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +77.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 50.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
49 analysts cover HLT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $338.45 (range: $304.00 — $373.00), implying +6.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (22), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HLT trades at the 8570th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (50.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HLT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (15.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2220.0% to approximately $389. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.