MODEL VERDICT
HNI Corporation (HNI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $37.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $37.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $37.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $35.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $34.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $51.43 | +37.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $48.51 | +29.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $19.65 | -47.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $38.90 | +3.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $2.05 | -94.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $29.25 | -21.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $49.63 | +32.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $18.86 | -49.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.72 | +11.4% | 100% | 61 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $42 | $45 |
| Conservative (5%) | $33 | $36 | $40 | $43 | $47 |
| Base Case (2.5%) | $32 | $35 | $39 | $42 | $46 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $32 | $36 | $39 | $42 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.37 | 30.92 | 9.67 | 38.73 | 12.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.34 | 14.55 | 9.55 | 27.11 | 7.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.16 | 9.00 | 7.25 | 11.84 | 1.48 |
| P/FCF | 20.42 | 12.07 | 8.13 | 56.59 | 18.57 |
| P/FFO | 10.79 | 12.38 | 5.77 | 13.18 | 2.81 |
| P/TBV | 12.78 | 11.75 | 6.78 | 17.30 | 3.59 |
| P/AFFO | 18.37 | 19.03 | 8.59 | 29.22 | 7.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.41 | 2.51 | 1.12 | 3.14 | 0.68 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.51 | 0.97 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates HNI's fair value at $41.72 vs the current price of $37.44, implying +11.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.43 (P10) to $46.45 (P90), with a median of $41.39.
HNI's current P/E of 33.7x compares to the industry median of 17.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +90.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
3 analysts cover HNI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $95.00 (range: $80.00 — $110.00), implying +153.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 1.9% is 2.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (5.8%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$89. (2) Multiple compression: HNI trades at the 8000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.4×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HNI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13840.0% to approximately $89. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.