MODEL VERDICT
Hooker Furnishings Corporation (HOFT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 22 industry peers | $23.71 | +67.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 22 industry peers | $18.73 | +32.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.48 | +72.5% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.30 | 17.60 | 7.60 | 22.40 | 6.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.75 | 13.45 | 6.16 | 17.96 | 4.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.67 | 9.20 | 5.43 | 136.07 | 56.77 |
| P/FCF | 20.74 | 10.52 | 3.12 | 68.05 | 27.10 |
| P/FFO | 21.73 | 11.46 | 6.40 | 66.94 | 25.52 |
| P/TBV | 1.26 | 1.19 | 0.71 | 1.90 | 0.45 |
| P/AFFO | 201.62 | 17.43 | 7.19 | 950.78 | 418.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.00 | 1.07 | 0.58 | 1.39 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.30 | 0.63 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates HOFT's fair value at $24.48 vs the current price of $14.19, implying +72.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.08 (P10) to $25.98 (P90), with a median of $20.98.
HOFT's current P/E of -11.8x compares to the industry median of 15.8x (16 peers in the group). This represents a -174.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.3x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover HOFT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HOFT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.