MODEL VERDICT
Hologic, Inc. (HOLX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $76.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $76.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $76.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $76.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $76.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $112.26 | +47.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $98.52 | +29.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $86.08 | +13.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $97.54 | +28.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $91.97 | +21.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $143.04 | +88.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $87.59 | +15.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $89.00 | +17.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $82.63 | +8.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $106.18 | +39.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $90.01 | +18.4% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $69 | $74 | $79 | $84 | $89 |
| Conservative (5%) | $71 | $76 | $81 | $86 | $92 |
| Base Case (-10.0%) | $61 | $65 | $69 | $74 | $78 |
| Bull Case (-14%) | $58 | $62 | $67 | $71 | $75 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.20 | 19.51 | 10.62 | 39.04 | 10.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.49 | 18.64 | 8.90 | 24.34 | 6.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.67 | 14.79 | 7.57 | 27.74 | 6.59 |
| P/FCF | 17.73 | 18.42 | 9.24 | 26.25 | 6.99 |
| P/FFO | 17.70 | 15.59 | 8.73 | 33.27 | 8.42 |
| P/TBV | 28.73 | 20.85 | 20.33 | 52.88 | 16.10 |
| P/AFFO | 21.10 | 16.69 | 9.46 | 45.49 | 12.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.59 | 3.89 | 3.34 | 7.12 | 1.50 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.22 | 4.18 | 3.53 | 5.10 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HOLX's fair value at $90.01 vs the current price of $76.01, implying +18.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $90.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $79.78 (P10) to $104.98 (P90), with a median of $92.34.
HOLX's current P/E of 30.5x compares to the industry median of 34.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -11.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.2x over 6 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
42 analysts cover HOLX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $79.00 (range: $79.00 — $79.00), implying +3.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (23), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HOLX trades at the 3570th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HOLX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (19.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 480.0% to approximately $80. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.