MODEL VERDICT
Home Bancshares, Inc. (HOMB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $26.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $26.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $26.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $27.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $27.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $28.47 | +6.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $25.43 | -4.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $22.39 | -16.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $33.98 | +27.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $28.47 | +6.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $29.31 | +9.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.89 | +0.5% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $18 | $23 | $27 | $31 | $35 |
| Conservative (5%) | $19 | $23 | $27 | $32 | $36 |
| Base Case (3.0%) | $19 | $23 | $27 | $31 | $35 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $19 | $23 | $27 | $31 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.86 | 13.06 | 9.45 | 14.98 | 1.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.99 | 10.55 | 3.06 | 12.52 | 3.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.42 | 10.06 | 2.92 | 11.59 | 2.95 |
| P/FCF | 12.15 | 11.50 | 9.67 | 14.38 | 1.85 |
| P/FFO | 11.94 | 12.12 | 8.90 | 13.74 | 1.68 |
| P/TBV | 2.16 | 2.18 | 2.01 | 2.27 | 0.09 |
| P/AFFO | 12.60 | 12.80 | 9.13 | 14.45 | 1.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.21 | 1.45 | 0.09 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.18 | 4.08 | 3.65 | 5.34 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates HOMB's fair value at $26.89 vs the current price of $26.74, implying +0.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.69 (P10) to $28.68 (P90), with a median of $27.11.
HOMB's current P/E of 13.3x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -6.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
19 analysts cover HOMB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $32.00 (range: $31.00 — $33.00), implying +19.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HOMB trades at the 5250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HOMB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1540.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.