MODEL VERDICT
HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $91.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $89.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $92.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $90.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $90.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $89.86 | -2.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $78.04 | -15.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $87.95 | -4.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $230.88 | +151.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $89.72 | -2.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $97.97 | +6.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91.27 | -0.7% | 100% | 81 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $77 | $91 | $105 | $119 | $133 |
| Conservative (21%) | $83 | $98 | $113 | $128 | $143 |
| Base Case (32.8%) | $91 | $107 | $124 | $140 | $156 |
| Bull Case (44%) | $98 | $116 | $134 | $152 | $170 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.27 | 9.73 | 7.11 | 27.27 | 8.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.99 | 5.20 | 3.11 | 17.66 | 5.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.57 | 4.74 | 2.79 | 11.06 | 3.22 |
| P/FCF | 9.85 | 4.49 | 0.59 | 47.97 | 16.94 |
| P/FFO | 7.84 | 6.73 | 5.89 | 10.49 | 1.90 |
| P/TBV | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.57 | 1.02 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 10.03 | 8.36 | 6.82 | 15.07 | 3.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.51 | 0.95 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.54 | 1.64 | 1.23 | 1.99 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates HSBC's fair value at $91.27 vs the current price of $91.95, implying -0.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $74.90 (P10) to $99.25 (P90), with a median of $86.71.
HSBC's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 14.5x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +2.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
19 analysts cover HSBC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $52.00 (range: $52.00 — $52.00), implying -43.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HSBC trades at the 4760th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HSBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2140.0% to approximately $72. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.