Horizon Technology Finance Corp (HTFC)
Valuation Overview•Is Horizon Technology Finance Corp Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 62/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
HTFC demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 42.6% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.9M | +17.9% | — | — | +10.3% | |
| EBITDA | $11.0M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $2.8M | +52.8% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.06 | +60.8% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.8M | +42.9% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 60.3% | -9.6% | 20.6% | 88.6% |
| Operating Margin | 42.6% | -32.8% | 2.3% | -69.5% |
| Net Margin | 28.8% | -37.7% | -1.2% | 51.0% |
| FCF Margin | 159.3% | 173.5% | -36.9% | -340.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.25 | $0.19 | -24.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.27 | $0.27 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.30 | $0.31 | +4.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.28 | $-0.50 | -281.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.28 | $0.28 | -3.0% | ||
| Q4'23 | — | $-0.32 | — | ||
| Q3'23 | — | $0.00 | — | ||
| Q2'23 | — | $0.00 | — |
Total return is +7.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -13.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +2.9% | -4.4% | — |
| 1Y | +7.2% | -13.7% | +6.3% |
| 3YCAGR | +7.0% | -12.2% | +19.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +4.8% | -6.8% | +25.7% |
| 10YCAGR | +2.4% | -11.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Horizon Technology Finance Corp (HTFC) valuation, health, and returns.
Horizon Technology Finance Corp is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -41.7% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $14.49)
Horizon Technology Finance Corp has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $14.49 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $4.75. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Horizon Technology Finance Corp displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 62/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.5 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -0.2%.
Horizon Technology Finance Corp pays a 5.1% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Horizon Technology Finance Corp's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +17.9% 1Y revenue growth and +60.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 20% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Horizon Technology Finance Corp include: -77.1% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.55x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.