MODEL VERDICT
H World Group Limited (HTHT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $50.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $51.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $55.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $53.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $52.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $452.05 | +787.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $359.17 | +605.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $495.06 | +872.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $609.98 | +1097.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $351.90 | +591.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $796.66 | +1464.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $196.69 | +286.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $196.97 | +286.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $494.58 | +871.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $605.63 | +1089.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $423.43 | +731.6% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $292 | $324 | $357 | $389 | $422 |
| Conservative (7%) | $299 | $332 | $366 | $399 | $432 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $309 | $343 | $378 | $412 | $446 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $319 | $354 | $390 | $425 | $460 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.01 | 3.23 | 2.68 | 6.91 | 1.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.36 | 7.29 | 6.52 | 16.36 | 4.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.27 | 10.88 | 5.50 | 46.04 | 16.61 |
| P/FCF | 7.62 | 2.08 | 1.61 | 25.83 | 10.42 |
| P/FFO | 4.53 | 2.51 | 2.04 | 11.20 | 3.84 |
| P/TBV | 17.55 | 6.86 | 4.11 | 46.09 | 18.59 |
| P/AFFO | 4.60 | 3.01 | 2.44 | 9.95 | 3.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 1.15 | 0.88 | 1.63 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.45 | 1.29 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HTHT's fair value at $423.43 vs the current price of $50.92, implying +731.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $423.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $337.02 (P10) to $463.13 (P90), with a median of $396.14.
HTHT's current P/E of 22.3x compares to the industry median of 31.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -29.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.0x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
19 analysts cover HTHT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $62.40 (range: $62.40 — $62.40), implying +22.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (5), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HTHT trades at the 1430th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (4.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HTHT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (10.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3620.0% to approximately $32. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.