MODEL VERDICT
H2O America (HTO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $56.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $59.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $58.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $58.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $59.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $61.90 | +9.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $64.29 | +13.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $57.68 | +1.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $54.78 | -3.4% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $56.27 | -0.8% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $48.58 | -14.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $96.75 | +70.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $61.89 | +9.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $69.86 | +23.2% | 100% | 79 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $45 | $51 | $57 | $63 | $69 |
| Conservative (5%) | $46 | $52 | $58 | $64 | $71 |
| Base Case (6.4%) | $47 | $53 | $59 | $65 | $71 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $48 | $54 | $60 | $67 | $73 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.33 | 32.41 | 16.78 | 86.66 | 23.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.19 | 28.38 | 18.06 | 53.85 | 11.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.01 | 16.84 | 12.18 | 27.31 | 5.09 |
| P/FFO | 12.77 | 13.00 | 7.93 | 22.09 | 4.80 |
| P/TBV | 5.21 | 5.68 | 2.05 | 8.89 | 2.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.83 | 2.10 | 1.14 | 2.28 | 0.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.38 | 3.53 | 2.20 | 4.83 | 0.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates HTO's fair value at $69.86 vs the current price of $56.73, implying +23.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $69.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60.73 (P10) to $85.65 (P90), with a median of $72.80.
HTO's current P/E of 19.4x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -8.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
5 analysts cover HTO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $62.25 (range: $61.00 — $64.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HTO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5590.0% to approximately $88. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.