MODEL VERDICT
Hubbell Incorporated (HUBB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $508.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $553.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $535.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $526.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $536.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $630.46 | +24.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $700.89 | +37.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $700.12 | +37.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $698.45 | +37.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $715.39 | +40.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $702.34 | +38.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $545.16 | +7.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $371.39 | -27.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $440.48 | -13.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $686.28 | +35.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $665.91 | +31.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $551.68 | +8.5% | 100% | 84 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $484 | $520 | $555 | $591 | $627 |
| Conservative (14%) | $507 | $545 | $582 | $620 | $657 |
| Base Case (20.8%) | $539 | $579 | $619 | $659 | $699 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $572 | $614 | $657 | $699 | $742 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.37 | 24.89 | 20.25 | 29.15 | 3.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.82 | 20.59 | 17.81 | 24.59 | 2.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.96 | 16.59 | 14.41 | 19.03 | 1.74 |
| P/FCF | 23.51 | 25.12 | 15.27 | 27.97 | 5.44 |
| P/FFO | 19.70 | 19.53 | 16.19 | 23.06 | 2.67 |
| P/AFFO | 23.89 | 23.88 | 19.94 | 27.94 | 3.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.41 | 5.36 | 4.10 | 6.89 | 1.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.01 | 2.72 | 2.05 | 4.07 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HUBB's fair value at $551.68 vs the current price of $508.43, implying +8.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $551.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $520.64 (P10) to $651.74 (P90), with a median of $586.00.
HUBB's current P/E of 30.7x compares to the industry median of 42.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -27.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.4x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
17 analysts cover HUBB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $535.14 (range: $450.00 — $575.00), implying +5.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 15.1% is 4.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (16.0%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$445. (2) Multiple compression: HUBB trades at the 3330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.4×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HUBB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1260.0% to approximately $445. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.