MODEL VERDICT
Hurco Companies, Inc. (HURC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 60 analyst estimates | $51.92 | +198.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 55 industry peers | $74.19 | +326.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 55 industry peers | $86.54 | +397.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 64 industry peers | $110.26 | +533.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 64 industry peers | $104.98 | +503.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 55 industry peers | $74.19 | +326.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.72 | +237.5% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.58 | 25.32 | 15.04 | 32.62 | 7.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.61 | 11.04 | 8.74 | 15.65 | 3.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.42 | 8.16 | 7.09 | 10.28 | 1.37 |
| P/FCF | 11.38 | 6.58 | 5.99 | 21.57 | 8.83 |
| P/FFO | 15.26 | 15.42 | 12.31 | 17.91 | 2.48 |
| P/TBV | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.50 | 1.16 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 18.51 | 17.75 | 15.70 | 22.85 | 3.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.76 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 1.09 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.79 | 0.69 | 0.56 | 1.17 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates HURC's fair value at $58.72 vs the current price of $17.40, implying +237.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.74 (P10) to $71.66 (P90), with a median of $63.51.
HURC's current P/E of -7.4x compares to the industry median of 33.7x (52 peers in the group). This represents a -122.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.6x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover HURC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HURC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.