MODEL VERDICT
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $239.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $242.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $255.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $254.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $252.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $178.38 | -25.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $167.42 | -30.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $174.99 | -27.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $155.65 | -35.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $169.25 | -29.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $160.39 | -33.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $497.77 | +107.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $120.06 | -49.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $122.59 | -48.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $173.81 | -27.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $147.52 | -38.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $158.26 | -33.9% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 55× | 60× | 65× (Current) | 70× | 75× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (20%) | $245 | $268 | $290 | $312 | $334 |
| Conservative (33%) | $271 | $296 | $320 | $345 | $370 |
| Base Case (50.5%) | $307 | $335 | $363 | $391 | $419 |
| Bull Case (68%) | $343 | $374 | $406 | $437 | $468 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.26 | 38.92 | 29.57 | 59.46 | 12.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.99 | 29.97 | 21.57 | 40.16 | 6.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.26 | 15.46 | 12.74 | 35.45 | 8.08 |
| P/FCF | 44.64 | 45.90 | 30.73 | 58.17 | 12.54 |
| P/FFO | 27.50 | 25.57 | 18.62 | 46.48 | 9.28 |
| P/AFFO | 48.37 | 42.09 | 27.52 | 79.59 | 18.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.59 | 4.61 | 3.08 | 15.55 | 4.56 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.23 | 2.93 | 2.01 | 10.09 | 2.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HWM's fair value at $158.26 vs the current price of $239.56, implying -33.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $158.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $144.98 (P10) to $170.62 (P90), with a median of $157.70.
HWM's current P/E of 64.6x compares to the industry median of 47.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +36.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 43.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
23 analysts cover HWM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $274.67 (range: $228.00 — $315.00), implying +14.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 18.3% is 10.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (15.7%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$137. (2) Multiple compression: HWM trades at the 8750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (43.3×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HWM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4260.0% to approximately $137. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.