MODEL VERDICT
Hexcel Corporation (HXL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $92.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $89.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $88.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $83.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $83.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $64.34 | -30.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $82.38 | -10.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $73.33 | -20.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $148.14 | +60.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $55.52 | -39.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $180.15 | +95.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $84.20 | -8.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $96.89 | +5.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $98.15 | +6.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $74.63 | -19.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $141.86 | +53.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $97.75 | +6.0% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 57× | 62× | 67× (Current) | 72× | 77× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $87 | $95 | $103 | $110 | $118 |
| Conservative (19%) | $93 | $101 | $109 | $117 | $126 |
| Base Case (29.2%) | $101 | $110 | $119 | $127 | $136 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $109 | $118 | $128 | $138 | $147 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 87.59 | 53.94 | 20.54 | 272.63 | 88.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 85.94 | 39.57 | 17.29 | 351.47 | 118.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.79 | 20.02 | 12.97 | 31.99 | 6.19 |
| P/FCF | 30.76 | 25.65 | 19.06 | 51.68 | 12.70 |
| P/FFO | 22.73 | 23.61 | 14.03 | 28.44 | 5.04 |
| P/TBV | 4.33 | 4.03 | 3.31 | 5.85 | 0.94 |
| P/AFFO | 34.68 | 33.41 | 25.77 | 51.56 | 8.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.57 | 3.41 | 2.70 | 4.73 | 0.74 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.03 | 3.12 | 2.67 | 3.52 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HXL's fair value at $97.75 vs the current price of $92.23, implying +6.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $97.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $83.67 (P10) to $120.33 (P90), with a median of $100.85.
HXL's current P/E of 67.3x compares to the industry median of 53.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +25.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 87.6x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
36 analysts cover HXL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $90.25 (range: $75.00 — $105.00), implying -2.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HXL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8990.0% to approximately $175. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.