MODEL VERDICT
Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $2.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $1.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $2.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $1.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $1.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 2 industry peers | $0.18 | -91.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 2 industry peers | $0.07 | -96.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.62 | +371.6% | 100% | 28 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 449.01 | 1.77 | 0.48 | 2687.10 | 1096.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 448.79 | 1.77 | 0.48 | 2685.79 | 1095.90 |
| P/S Ratio | 1229.73 | 219.66 | 92.89 | 5338.70 | 2298.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates HYLN's fair value at $9.62 vs the current price of $2.04, implying +371.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 28/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
HYLN's current P/E of -6.2x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -121.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover HYLN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $3.13 (range: $2.25 — $4.00), implying +53.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (3), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 28/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (15), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HYLN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.