MODEL VERDICT
Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $33.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $33.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $34.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $34.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $34.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $43.41 | +29.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $28.57 | -15.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $36.84 | +9.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $35.78 | +6.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $43.41 | +29.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $40.48 | +20.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.26 | +10.8% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $20 | $27 | $33 | $40 | $47 |
| Conservative (5%) | $21 | $27 | $34 | $41 | $48 |
| Base Case (5.3%) | $21 | $28 | $34 | $41 | $48 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $21 | $28 | $35 | $42 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.32 | 9.33 | 7.30 | 11.32 | 1.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.03 | 8.51 | 5.76 | 10.19 | 1.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.26 | 7.47 | 5.09 | 9.22 | 1.64 |
| P/FCF | 9.57 | 7.92 | 5.00 | 17.79 | 4.55 |
| P/FFO | 7.95 | 7.46 | 6.28 | 10.02 | 1.54 |
| P/TBV | 1.63 | 1.66 | 1.21 | 1.95 | 0.26 |
| P/AFFO | 8.70 | 8.13 | 6.73 | 11.06 | 1.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.05 | 1.62 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.27 | 2.28 | 1.91 | 2.76 | 0.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates IBCP's fair value at $37.26 vs the current price of $33.61, implying +10.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.66 (P10) to $38.41 (P90), with a median of $36.04.
IBCP's current P/E of 10.3x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -22.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
7 analysts cover IBCP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $38.00 (range: $37.00 — $39.00), implying +13.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: IBCP trades at the 1970th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IBCP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 300.0% to approximately $35. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.