MODEL VERDICT
IBEX Limited (IBEX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $29.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $27.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $30.04 | +6.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $42.69 | +51.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $44.32 | +56.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $22.26 | -21.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $41.81 | +48.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $19.46 | -31.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $106.14 | +275.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $68.28 | +141.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $73.79 | +161.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $37.11 | +31.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $19.89 | -29.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.36 | +50.0% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $22 | $27 | $33 | $38 | $44 |
| Conservative (26%) | $24 | $30 | $36 | $42 | $48 |
| Base Case (39.9%) | $26 | $33 | $40 | $46 | $53 |
| Bull Case (54%) | $29 | $36 | $44 | $51 | $58 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.55 | 18.89 | 11.38 | 85.93 | 29.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.13 | 15.44 | 9.26 | 25.26 | 6.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.28 | 9.40 | 6.40 | 13.48 | 2.58 |
| P/FCF | 18.44 | 15.68 | 6.97 | 33.03 | 9.75 |
| P/FFO | 9.39 | 9.49 | 7.10 | 11.76 | 1.95 |
| P/TBV | 38.96 | 4.11 | 2.55 | 215.52 | 86.50 |
| P/AFFO | 20.02 | 14.32 | 8.86 | 37.12 | 12.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.13 | 3.52 | 2.37 | 20.49 | 7.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.53 | 1.08 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates IBEX's fair value at $42.36 vs the current price of $28.25, implying +50.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.25 (P10) to $46.83 (P90), with a median of $39.15.
IBEX's current P/E of 12.0x compares to the industry median of 18.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -36.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.5x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover IBEX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $24.00 (range: $20.00 — $29.00), implying -15.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.3% is 3.8 percentage points above the 6-year average (3.6%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$36. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IBEX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2780.0% to approximately $36. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.