MODEL VERDICT
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $80.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $76.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $81.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $79.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $71.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $50.58 | -37.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $132.84 | +65.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $142.63 | +77.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $20.50 | -74.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $50.58 | -37.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $37.87 | -52.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.65 | -6.0% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $75 | $82 | $89 | $97 | $104 |
| Conservative (19%) | $79 | $87 | $95 | $103 | $111 |
| Base Case (29.7%) | $86 | $95 | $104 | $112 | $121 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $93 | $103 | $112 | $121 | $131 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.90 | 24.52 | 14.62 | 28.97 | 4.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.49 | 4.04 | 2.52 | 8.43 | 2.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.35 | 4.00 | 2.31 | 8.09 | 2.27 |
| P/FCF | 1.60 | 1.83 | 0.61 | 2.22 | 0.54 |
| P/FFO | 18.80 | 18.61 | 12.56 | 26.64 | 4.68 |
| P/TBV | 0.80 | 0.63 | 0.45 | 1.41 | 0.35 |
| P/AFFO | 22.24 | 23.86 | 13.50 | 28.40 | 4.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.79 | 0.63 | 0.45 | 1.41 | 0.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.96 | 2.03 | 1.13 | 2.81 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates IBKR's fair value at $75.65 vs the current price of $80.46, implying -6.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.27 (P10) to $76.37 (P90), with a median of $65.71.
IBKR's current P/E of 36.2x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +59.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover IBKR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $87.67 (range: $82.00 — $98.00), implying +9.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: IBKR trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IBKR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4420.0% to approximately $45. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.