MODEL VERDICT
Installed Building Products, Inc. (IBP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $290.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $302.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $297.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $283.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $285.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $263.71 | -9.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $407.72 | +40.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $225.86 | -22.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $248.64 | -14.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $221.81 | -23.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $258.20 | -11.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $530.65 | +82.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $345.44 | +19.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $346.70 | +19.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $225.85 | -22.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $233.31 | -19.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $303.46 | +4.6% | 100% | 87 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $277 | $298 | $320 | $341 | $362 |
| Conservative (16%) | $292 | $315 | $337 | $360 | $382 |
| Base Case (24.3%) | $314 | $338 | $362 | $386 | $410 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $335 | $361 | $387 | $413 | $438 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.93 | 26.71 | 11.06 | 34.84 | 8.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.11 | 19.93 | 9.24 | 25.62 | 5.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.51 | 12.49 | 6.88 | 16.31 | 3.22 |
| P/FCF | 23.12 | 20.58 | 10.64 | 40.87 | 9.45 |
| P/FFO | 14.56 | 14.01 | 7.24 | 19.00 | 4.04 |
| P/AFFO | 18.37 | 19.97 | 8.36 | 23.49 | 5.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.18 | 8.23 | 5.01 | 9.93 | 1.80 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.73 | 1.83 | 0.93 | 2.36 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates IBP's fair value at $303.46 vs the current price of $290.21, implying +4.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $303.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $252.67 (P10) to $301.03 (P90), with a median of $276.44.
IBP's current P/E of 29.9x compares to the industry median of 23.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +28.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.9x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
27 analysts cover IBP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $293.00 (range: $259.00 — $355.00), implying +1.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (15), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: IBP trades at the 9470th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IBP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 610.0% to approximately $308. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.