MODEL VERDICT
ICU Medical, Inc. (ICUI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $118.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $124.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $129.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $126.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $125.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $124.23 | +4.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $105.65 | -11.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $0.85 | -99.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $64.87 | -45.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $0.02 | -100.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $54.52 | -54.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $232.48 | +95.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $248.41 | +109.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $0.85 | -99.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $64.97 | -45.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $118.30 | -0.5% | 100% | 75 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 3328× | 3645× | 3962× (Current) | 4279× | 4596× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $102 | $112 | $121 | $131 | $141 |
| Conservative (5%) | $105 | $115 | $125 | $135 | $145 |
| Base Case (-62.5%) | $37 | $41 | $45 | $48 | $52 |
| Bull Case (-84%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1224.75 | 51.71 | 39.90 | 4755.67 | 2353.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 79.54 | 43.20 | 32.96 | 157.71 | 58.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 46.44 | 22.21 | 15.31 | 112.72 | 43.10 |
| P/FCF | 33.55 | 33.13 | 27.74 | 38.70 | 4.72 |
| P/FFO | 21.04 | 23.01 | 12.07 | 25.54 | 5.36 |
| P/TBV | 3.64 | 3.64 | 3.55 | 3.73 | 0.09 |
| P/AFFO | 42.58 | 45.94 | 20.85 | 56.94 | 15.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.25 | 1.93 | 1.13 | 3.20 | 0.81 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.38 | 1.65 | 1.06 | 3.93 | 1.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates ICUI's fair value at $118.30 vs the current price of $118.85, implying -0.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $118.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $94.13 (P10) to $215.95 (P90), with a median of $146.28.
ICUI's current P/E of 3961.7x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +13864.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1224.7x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover ICUI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $163.50 (range: $163.00 — $164.00), implying +37.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (8), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ICUI trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1224.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ICUI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.