MODEL VERDICT
InterDigital, Inc. (IDCC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $290.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $368.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $373.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $365.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $352.27 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $272.32 | -6.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $296.38 | +2.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $406.65 | +40.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $252.18 | -13.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $730.01 | +151.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $363.15 | +25.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 33 industry peers | $946.41 | +225.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $204.74 | -29.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $130.10 | -55.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $412.58 | +42.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $322.71 | +11.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $361.68 | +24.5% | 100% | 80 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (21%) | $300 | $328 | $357 | $385 | $414 |
| Conservative (34%) | $332 | $364 | $395 | $427 | $459 |
| Base Case (52.3%) | $377 | $413 | $449 | $485 | $521 |
| Bull Case (71%) | $423 | $463 | $503 | $544 | $584 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.08 | 26.98 | 14.24 | 82.56 | 24.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.86 | 21.09 | 9.80 | 25.00 | 6.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.48 | 12.60 | 6.29 | 19.98 | 4.08 |
| P/FCF | 20.08 | 20.77 | 6.20 | 33.67 | 8.42 |
| P/FFO | 14.97 | 14.98 | 8.76 | 22.70 | 4.69 |
| P/TBV | 8.39 | 6.10 | 4.26 | 14.47 | 4.10 |
| P/AFFO | 19.19 | 22.59 | 10.61 | 28.85 | 7.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.50 | 2.97 | 2.06 | 9.97 | 2.98 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.37 | 5.43 | 3.29 | 13.16 | 3.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates IDCC's fair value at $361.68 vs the current price of $290.50, implying +24.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $361.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $277.35 (P10) to $370.07 (P90), with a median of $322.84.
IDCC's current P/E of 24.6x compares to the industry median of 34.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -28.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
16 analysts cover IDCC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $425.00 (range: $425.00 — $425.00), implying +46.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 44.2% is 18.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (25.9%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$236. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IDCC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1880.0% to approximately $236. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.