MODEL VERDICT
IDT Corporation (IDT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $51.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $51.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $52.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $50.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $49.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $64.15 | +25.5% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $52.95 | +3.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 2 industry peers | $3.67 | -92.8% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $52.26 | +2.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $75.83 | +48.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $54.91 | +7.4% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $227.26 | +344.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $77.06 | +50.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $62.36 | +22.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $87.90 | +71.9% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $44 | $51 | $57 | $64 | $71 |
| Conservative (20%) | $47 | $54 | $61 | $68 | $76 |
| Base Case (30.0%) | $51 | $59 | $67 | $74 | $82 |
| Bull Case (41%) | $55 | $63 | $72 | $80 | $89 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 95.21 | 18.71 | 11.94 | 554.62 | 202.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.17 | 12.74 | 10.09 | 141.11 | 48.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.95 | 8.82 | 4.18 | 14.03 | 3.47 |
| P/FCF | 25.69 | 20.36 | 2.75 | 51.00 | 20.30 |
| P/FFO | 12.03 | 13.34 | 7.81 | 16.45 | 3.41 |
| P/TBV | 5.48 | 5.13 | 4.33 | 7.98 | 1.21 |
| P/AFFO | 32.37 | 32.09 | 16.39 | 65.33 | 17.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.51 | 4.14 | 3.41 | 6.91 | 1.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.13 | 1.05 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates IDT's fair value at $87.90 vs the current price of $51.13, implying +71.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $87.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $44.69 (P10) to $161.85 (P90), with a median of $80.03.
IDT's current P/E of 17.0x compares to the industry median of 21.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -20.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 95.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
2 analysts cover IDT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 6.5% is 2.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (3.6%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$158. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IDT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 20920.0% to approximately $158. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.